Things that you can't always predict in retail

Part of trying to predict what will happen in retail, also means sometimes we need to talk about uncomfortable things. Yes, I'm talking about COVID-19.

I say this with a heavy heart for everyone across the world including me! No one knows exactly what’s going to happen here in just a few months. What are some of the things that are happening now?

• More people are being asked to work from home.

• More people are scared to go to public places, and so they are spending even more time at home.

• Large public events are being canceled.

• Religious ceremonies like weddings and bat mitzvahs are getting smaller or being postponed.

• People are stocking up on food supplies in cases quarantines are put in place later on. No one wants to be caught flat-footed in the event they can’t leave their city.

• Almost the entire country of Italy is now under movement restrictions.

• Some of the countries with the largest manufacturing output are some of the hardest hit by the virus, i.e. China and Southeast Asia.

These factors are going to have an impact on consumer purchase behavior, but how? What are the things that will be true in the short-term? What things will stick around longer-term and not "snap back to normal"? I hope to spend the next few posts talking about this topic.