Proper Planning Is Better Than Predictions in ECommerce

I always find predictions a bit silly, especially in arbitrary time ranges. Wonder what I do not find silly? Planning.

Look at how the military plans. You set a primary mission objective, and then a series of smaller goals leading up to it. In order to achieve those goals, you have strategies and tactics, and then you have fallbacks.

What's a fallback? It's what you do instead of beating your head against a wall when life happens.

Examples: You didn't get all the inventory you ordered, or at the time you got it. When your conversion rate doesn't match your "expectations", and your (minor) improvements don't move the needle. You are planning a big photo shoot and have 1/3rd of the depth you expected to sell-through in the season.

Many executives not familiar with eCommerce will insist on certain top-down metrics at the beginning of the year, and then not change their mind until they are focused to present to the Board themselves (double standard).

#eCommerce is generally a knife-fight. Which means you need to be making daily and weekly improvements, even if things are not going "to plan."

So instead of making predictions, think about your goals, strategies, tactics, ... and also your contingencies. How will your adjust your plan if each of your key metrics does not work out as expected.