April 7th, 2025: Key takeaways on public and private markets, Shoptalk did not answer my key industry questions, Consumers getting stressed out, and Amazon makes last minute bid to buy TikTok
Is There a Worse Owner For TikTok Than Amazon?
Look, I am going to bottom line it for you guys. I can’t think of a worse owner for Tiktok than logistics company Amazon. I know there are a lot of chocolate and peanut butter theories of how these two great companies could taste better together, but I think this would be the start of a slow boringification of Tiktok the likes of which.
In fact, I bet for this reason, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are cheering for Amazon’s bid to go through!
You’ll find this and other insights on the Watson Weekly podcast, headed straight to your earhole every Monday morning.
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It’s April 7, 2025 and this is the Watson Weekly - your essential eCommerce Digest!
Today on our show:
Key Takeaways on Public and Private Markets
Shoptalk Did Not Answer My Key Industry Questions
Consumers Getting Stressed Out
Amazon Makes Last Minute Bid to Buy TikTok
- and finally, The Investor Minute which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.
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To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
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[PAUSE]
BUT FIRST in our shopping cart full of news….
Key Takeaways on Public and Private Markets
Some friends sent me a Redpoint Market Update deck; thought would be good to summarize here. TL;DR - VC seems fine. Almost impossible to IPO. Tariffs could tank us in 2025.
>Public Markets
* Tariffs are a tax, and are not accretive to either retailers or shoppers. Vibecession has already started, recession could follow. Eventually the bill comes due.
* CEO sentiment sharply down post-election about next 12 months.
* NASDAQ still 33% above ZIRP peak, so... look out below?
>Private Companies
* Quota attainment for software reps is improving.
* Later stage Series B+C VC activity has started to rebound.
* Series B/C private companies remain at a 3x premium to public comparables.
* Lots of AI companies, scaling faster, valued higher.
>Liquidity & Exits
* However, 72% of 2021 unicorns have not raised an up round in 3 years.
* Tech IPO volume still looks like post-2008 or post-dot com bust levels.
AI
* Expect GenAI budgets to 3x in the next 3 years. (note: we have not seen the end of agentic Shoptalk booths)
Our Second Story
Shoptalk Did Not Answer My Key Industry Questions
When I was preparing for Shoptalk, I thought about three questions to focus my efforts and time.
1 - Which startups are replacing the most people and will it work, or is it just an excuse for the investors?
Answer: Excuses abound. Many workers are safe for the moment, but serious pressure is being put on support, creative services, and operations. Customer acquisition and retention roles are more needed than ever.
However, I predict hiring freezes most places this year, at a minimum.
2 - When will the great platform shakeup occur?
Answer: It's somewhat hard to say this because it's based on runway of each player. Still, here is what I learned:
* Shopify is still the "default" choice in the landscape, taking most oxygen. But cracks do exist up-market (especially competitive captures > $500M), in B2B, and large-scale store installations. Basically any market where Shop Pay or Stripe are not as desirable. It's plain to me there is more work to do here.
* BigCommerce seems mostly focused on B2B, but B2C still remains as a Shopify alternative. New execs are in town, but a lot of organizational transformation remains.
* Salesforce is agentic up the wazoo. Unclear what the plan is. The booth at least mentioned Commerce this year, so there's that.
* Adobe is Adobe-ing. Like Salesforce, it needs commerce less than others. And what about Magento? Like really, what's gonna happen to it?
* Commercetools despite the recent departues, still has staying power and seems more than ever focused up-market.
Several previous commerce platform vendors seem more like OMS vendors now. I predict at least 2 more platform vendors (probably not on this list) will make pivot decisions this year.
Replatforms according to all conversations have slowed wayyyy down.
"TCO rules everything around me."
System integrators are pivoting into technology roadmaps, retention/lifecycle marketing, and design primarily.
3 - Who is doing real actual personalized marketing? As opposed to "could be doing" personalized marketing but just using the stock templates, please and thank you.
Answer: Not many people. I learned, if it's not "agentic" it's not happening at Shoptalk. Talk about the overuse of a word -- virtually no one using it who understands what it means.
Most people when they say it, either want to reproduce Amazon Rufus, or Google Gemini, or both.
[References:]
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ecommercestrategyconsulting_shoptalk-did-not-provide-great-answers-for-activity-7312802186789376000-_F_m?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAABzTYBMEkpgbpDWbI9miv0bkNA3W2mE1I
Our Third Story
Consumers Getting Stressed Out
Has the State of the Consumer from From Resilient to Choiceful to Stressed and Cautious?
In terms of consumer behavior, we have seen all the adjectives. People are parsing the words of major retailer/brand CEOs like they were coming from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
If there is one CEO I pay attention to more than most, it's Walmart. Walmart - although a discount/EDLP retailer, more defines where mainstream America is than almost anyone else... not to mention, over half of its new growth is coming from more affluent customers.
The company is reporting lower pack sizes, and consumers running out of money by the end of the month. The cause is put on stubbornly high food prices. Given the state of the relationships between America's neighbors who incidentally produce a significant number of agricultural imports to the United States, it seems this trend is unlikely to stop anytime soon.
Lululemon's CEO is reporting similarly stressed consumer behavior in a recent report - while AOV and conversion rate seem strong, traffic is off due to concerns about inflation and the economy. My read on it is a little different, it seems to me that Lulu is almost becoming a luxury symbol and other brands like alo and aerie are become more "everyday staples". Lulu could become just for the statement pieces.
Regardless, I just wanted to pass along these two datapoints because it feels eerily like the last time we started talking about inflation. And now we sit on the precipice of April 2 -- the effects of which are likely to have definite impacts on pricing.
Frankly, I think job security is another factor at play here too. If you are in the federal government or education, it can seem like you are a target. In a high-tech field, another target due to AI. Across the economy, you might be a target due to the "Elonification" of corporate America -- the belief that more must be done with less.
Uncertainty is not great for consumer confidence and behavior, which could signal a very different 2025 than we were expecting just 3 months ago. Let's see if any more tea leaves continue to appear.
[References:]
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ecommercestrategyconsulting_the-state-of-the-consumer-from-resilient-activity-7312439777046192128-FEuf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAABzTYBMEkpgbpDWbI9miv0bkNA3W2mE1I
[PAUSE]
And Our Last Story
What Would Amazon Do With TikTok?
The New York Times has just reported that Amazon has decided to put in a last minute bid for TikTok. What does the company who has it all need?
Apparently more dance jingles. This from the company that had an 8 year lead in agentic AI with Alexa and squandered it. Is this who we want controlling our social media?
Look, let me bottom line it for everyone. I can’t think of a worse owner than Amazon for Tiktok. What would a logistics and operations company do with an inspiration discovery platform? Kill it off slowly is the answer. It’s not that I don’t know what they want to do with it, but long-term this is a doomed proposition.
Trust me, there is no one rooting for Amazon’s TikTok bid more than Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
[References:]
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/business/media/amazon-tiktok-bid.html
It’s That Time Friends, for our Investor Minute. We have 5 items on the menu today.
First
Shopify Optimization Platform Platter Secures $1.6M in Pre-Seed Funding Round
Shopify storefront and checkout optimization platform Platter has raised $1.6 million in pre-seed funding, which will be used to consolidate disparate tools into a unified suite. Is this the first case of a Shopify themes company starting to offer optimization solutions for checkout?
Second
New Water Capital Acquires Dutch Gold Honey and Related Businesses
Private equity firm New Water Capital has acquired Dutch Gold Honey and its related businesses of McLure’s Honey & Maple Products, Gamber Container Company, The Bacon Jug Company, and DGH Logistics for an undisclosed amount. The acquisition is aimed at growth for Dutch Gold Honey by a PE firm through market reach expansion and operational strengthening. Imagine this - a PE firm acquiring a honey producer that owns a maple syrup business, a container/packaging business, and a logistics company? Sounds like a good fit.
Link: https://www.newwatercap.com/new-water-capital-acquires-dutch-gold-honey-and-related-businesses/
Third
PE-Backed KNS International Acquires Footwear Brand Birdies
Footwear brand holding company KNS International, backed by private equity fund Centre Partners, has acquired direct-to-customer footwear brand Birdie for an undisclosed amount. Bianca Gates, co-founder of Birdies, will become a brand president at KNS. The acquisition provides Birdies with the resources to scale, such as distribution and supply chain efficiency, while KNS adds a well-known DTC footwear brand with a loyal customer base. It is important to note that this is part of a larger trend in which footwear brands are acquisition targets.
Link: https://www.retaildive.com/news/kns-international-acquires-birdies/742188/
Fourth
Platform Optimization Intelligems Raises $9M in Series A Funding
Profit optimization platform Intelligems has raised $9 million in Series A funding that will be invested in product development, hiring, and acquiring AB3.ai. Intelligems offers a variety of tools that provide brands the opportunity to test/experiment with pricing, shipping, and content. Is there space for a platform that is currently only focused on Shopify merchants? Will this not become a part of the core of Shopify's platform?
AND FINALLY …
Fashion Rental Platform Pickle Announces $12M Series A Funding
Pickle is a leading peer-to-peer rental marketplace that makes items from your community's closets available for rent on demand. Another rental company, really?
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Did you know that RMW Commerce has another podcast? Check out The Watson Weekend for an unfiltered and lively eCommerce chat each week with me, Rick Watson, my co-host Jess Lesesky, and an array of interesting guests and topics. All focused on eCommerce. You can find the Watson Weekend by searching for it on iTunes, Spotify, or Youtube.
That’s all for this week! Till next time Watsonians.....
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Hi, I’m Rick Watson, CEO and Founder of RMW Commerce Consulting and host of the Watson Weekly podcast - your essential eCommerce Digest.
Our production partner for the series is Podcast on the Fly. This podcast is produced by RMW Commerce.
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
