Market Update - Key Macro Takeaways on Public and Private Markets

eCommerce
Written By Rick Watson

Some friends sent me a Redpoint Market Update deck; thought would be good to summarize here. TL;DR - VC seems fine. Almost impossible to IPO. Tariffs could tank us in 2025.

>Public Markets

* Tariffs are a tax, and are not accretive to either retailers or shoppers. Vibecession has already started, recession could follow. Eventually the bill comes due.

* CEO sentiment sharply down post-election about next 12 months.

* NASDAQ still 33% above ZIRP peak, so... look out below?

>Private Companies

* Quota attainment for software reps is improving.

* Later stage Series B+C VC activity has started to rebound.

* Series B/C private companies remain at a 3x premium to public comparables.

* Lots of AI companies, scaling faster, valued higher.

>Liquidity & Exits

* However, 72% of 2021 unicorns have not raised an up round in 3 years.

* Tech IPO volume still looks like post-2008 or post-dot com bust levels.

AI

* Expect GenAI budgets to 3x in the next 3 years. (note: we have not seen the end of agentic Shoptalk booths)

Rick Watson

Rick Watson founded RMW Commerce Consulting after spending 20+ years as a technology entrepreneur and operator exclusively in the eCommerce industry with companies like ChannelAdvisor, BarnesandNoble.com, Merchantry, and Pitney Bowes.

Watson’s work today is centered on supporting investors and management teams incubating and growing direct-to-consumer businesses. Most recently, in partnership with WHP Global, Rick was a critical resource in architecting the WHP+ platform, a new turnkey direct to consumer digital e-commerce platform that powers AnneKlein.com and JosephAbboud.com.

Watson also hosts a weekly podcast, Watson Weekly, where he shares an unbiased, unfiltered expert take on the retail sector’s biggest players.

In the past year alone, Rick has spoken at many in-person and virtual events as well as podcasts on topics ranging from retail/ecom to supply chain/logistics and even digital grocery including CommerceNext IRL, ASCM Connect, and Retail Innovation Conference.

https://www.rmwcommerce.com/
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