Is Wish Showing Us The Future?
Wish filed their IPO S-1. I will spend more time here, but wanted to start with this:
If Wish is right about the future of eCommerce, and you're an eCommerce investor in the United States or Western Europe, then you are likely wrong.
Big statement - but here's why.
The past two decades of eCommerce has prioritized convenience over price. Despite price being in their flywheel, the story of Amazon is about convenience - and at the time they made that bet, it wasn't obvious convenience would win overall.
When someone comes along and tells a different story, it's useful to consider - what if they're right?
Even the Wish prospectus opening is interesting to follow:
the next billion consumers will primarily be value-conscious consumers.
according to their surveys, 75% of consumers value price above all other factors.
Personally, I've never loved Wish as a business or as a site, but then I'm not the market. Wish believes they have identified an inflection point - something that is not terribly obvious to the general investment community. Which means, if they are right, they will achieve outsized returns.
That consistency and willingness to bet against the grain, I appreciate greatly.
