Whither Meta: When Your Founder Says It is Better to Acquire Than Compete, and you Can't Acquire, What Now?

A recent article I read from Business Insider quoted Nikita Bier on the troubles of Meta. Here are a few points that stood out:

- Can't hire due to general crunch, as well as negative image of Facebook.

- Can't compete in #advertising engagement because it doesn't generally have a vision beyond following the growth leader (in this case, Tiktok).

Lost its top users due to Tiktok churn.

Literally in uncovered company emails from prior lawsuit discovery, Zuckerburg said it was better to acquire than compete, but ...

- Can't acquire due to antitrust scrutiny, and there may not be anyone material to acquire anyway. Even if they could, who would they pick now?

- #Facebook just became #Meta and so they have bet the company on perfectly timing a generational media and behavior shift. Easier said than done. I applaud their vision to see a future in this area, and put their money where their mouth is, but this will not become their number one revenue driver soon.

These points resonated with me.

Bill Gates used to keep a year's worth of cash on hand early in Microsoft's history as a safety valve in order to be able to "pivot" the company in a new market if he had to. Facebook's transition to Meta was clearly planned as "gradual next act", rather than an immediate bet the company catapult.

Of course the rename was an attempt to seize mindshare and first-mover, but you cannot first-move your way to changing consumer behavior.

If you could, CueCat would own all QR codes. Timing is important.

It is entirely possible that Meta continues shedding staff, having difficulty hiring. In that case, their VR transition has truly become that bet the company initiative Bill Gates used to talk about.

If it's a miss, then the company is already on the path towards Myspace. If it's a hit, then we may as well empty our wallets towards Zuckerburg for the next 10 years because clearly he knows something strategically we don't.