Which Platforms Are Most Threatened by TikTok?
Recently, I wrote about TikTok coming for Google, Amazon, and Shopify. The fact that TikTok is launching a Refurbished Phones Category in the UK tells you a lot about how they think about the market: in a traditional marketplace way. It appears they are also coming for eBay as well.
In the past few years, many brands have had an "it's complicated" relationship with Amazon, a situation forced by the fact that this venue was also competing with you in other areas. Yet, you couldn't ignore the buyers there. And now Amazon Buy With Prime was put into a "it's complicated" relationship" with Shopify, forced by the fact that most of the Buy With Prime target market is on Shopify Stores.
Let's review which players are the most threatened by the rise of TikTok.
Who Is Highly Threatened by TikTok's Rise?
Of all the players, I think Google is most at risk. Is 20 text links on a page in a search result the best way to find information, or is it just the way the previous generation did it?
We are about to find out. Not to mention, YouTube looks flat-footed in the face of TikTok.
Meta
Mark Zuckerburg is great at copying. Instagram is still extremely powerful, and IG Reels is still growing. Still, the momentum is not here like it was.
Who Falls into the Medium-Threatened Category?
eBay and Facebook Groups/Marketplace:
With TikTok launching a refurbished phone category in the UK, it seems likely that TikTok is also coming for second-hand goods. It's possible that ThredUp, Poshmark, and all the secondhand players have something to be concerned about.
As you go into up-market brands, however, no one has been able to crack authenticity at scale -- including those who have tried to conquer it exclusively like TheRealReal.
Still, the threat is greater here than some other players because if you come to TikTok to discover, and you trust the influencer, you are that much more likely to buy there.
Who Is Less Threatened by TikTok's Expansion?
Shopify
To Shopify, TikTok is just another marketplace. Even if TikTok Shops become more official, more full-featured, etc., it doesn't diminish the need for a "home base" store (i.e. DTC). Plus, TikTok still needs Shopify merchants to advertise there, right? Not just sell. Otherwise, it surrenders all that retail ad revenue to Meta, Google, and Amazon.
To be sure, more power to TikTok is still not fantastic news for Shopify. Shopify thrives in a multi-polar world, and if certain segments of consumers (now, but this could change) are doing most of their consideration on TikTok, this could change Shopify's calculus.
Amazon
Look, while TikTok is building eCommerce, and is doing some things in logistics (including partnerships), it's one thing to offer a service, and it's quite another to offer it at the scale, cost and efficiency of Amazon.
To be clear, there is a huge risk for TikTok getting over their skis. Like Omar says in the TV series The Wire, "If you come at The King, you best not miss."
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