Instacart has become one of my favorite companies to follow. Not because I am a grocery market expert (easy to see from my background). But because it represents such a disruptive (and growing) force in the market.

The key questions facing the entire grocery market from a "war game" point of view are this:

1. Is the ONLINE grocery sector destined to become a winner-take-all market to the platform with the most scale, where there is a 70% player, a 25% player, and "everyone else"?

2. Does Instacart have the right strategy for consumers - speed, convenience, assortment - to continue to accelerate as the digital grocery market continues to expand and build on its COVID momentum? Or if the price is the driving factor, will Walmart's scale eventually propel them?

3. Is Instacart's innovation advantage - which appears considerable - the joker in the deck here? In other words, does it matter if Walmart has some backward-looking, structural advantages if they are too damn slow?

   Jeff Weidauer touched on this queestion - “Instacart has only first-mover advantage. Retailers could pull the plug and start their own programs, but few appear to have the appetite. They keep hoping things will go "back to normal" and all this online stuff will go away.”

4. If Walmart was so structurally protected from Instacart's disruption, why partner with them at all? What is the specific advantage created by keeping their enemy closer here?

5. WHEN (not if) Instacart introduces their own labels and logistics, will the industry get the memo then? Or will it be too late?

One of the comments I get about this market is that "you can't project COVID forward and assume that will happen." I don't think you have to. Do you feel the same way about anything else? Do you feel that we will fly to the "exact same" number of meetings post-pandemic, rather than just taking a Zoom call? Or will Zoom encroach on some segment of the travel market? Also, younger generations are more comfortable with digital marketplaces and experiences even in markets that have been traditionally underpenetrated. Time is on the side of digital technologies, not the other way around.

Miles Thomas shared some thoughts on what elements the optimal grocery delivery service - whether from the retailer itself or a third-party - needs to be able to deliver to build and maintain customer loyalty:

On Time, in full, acceptable quality and shelf life dates (ideally advised by email after pick), acceptable subs, good delivery experience including rapid refund for items rejected at door. Easy checkout. Website that remembers my usual favourites and makes it easy to add them for next order, ability to easily manage multiple future orders and slots…website that understands my dietary and cultural preferences. Need to consider all of these points to be successful with repeat business.

I hope WalMart, et al. are taking notes!