In This Market, Everyone Is An Amateur Economist.

Just like the last year in the pandemic, everyone is an amateur epidemiologist. The reality is, that no one knows what is going to happen.

Here are the only things anyone knows for sure:

1- Economic downturn is going to end at some point.

2- No one knows how long it's going to last.

3- Your customers are still buying things.

That's it, that's all we know for sure. In situations like this, I find all the fancy forecasting and survey tools to be completely useless, and I switch back to qualitative mode.

The third point is one I keep coming back to.

The one recommendation I can give to brands is to have actual conversations with your customers. Do not assume you know how they are feeling, making decisions, why they are buying or not buying. What they are replacing things with, or not. Are they buying more or less in bulk? Or not? Are they cancelling subscriptions? What are their gifting plans in the next 6 months?

Have your customer service team send a weekly pulse of your good customers on what they are doing and how they are reacting to things.

It could just help you optimize your merchandising or marketing just a bit better in this environment.