What do I expect from Amazon in Q4 2020 and 2021? In Q4, I expect them to show some of the best unit profitability numbers in the company's history due to logistics utilization and inventory sell-through numbers higher than almost anyone else. For 2021, there are a couple of big things on the horizon:

• If they don't get the vaccination gig, I expect Amazon to replicate its UK third-party logistics model in the US (after shuttering their pilot), becoming a first-class competitor to FedEx, UPS, and USPS - at least for small and mid-sized businesses and 3PLs with some connection to Amazon. The lowest hanging fruit is merchant-fulfilled volume and seller-fulfilled Prime volume. Which is a lot.

• While Amazon Fresh has been rolling out steadily, expect that to continue to accelerate. Amazon is out for blood in grocery.

• I expect some more big announcements upcoming in the Amazon Luxury/Fashion space. It's a key area of focus for the company. As the economy opens up later in the year, there could even be tie-ins to physical brand stores and high-end retailers who are struggling.

• I honestly don't expect much Webstore news in 2021, and if there is, people will be underwhelmed. It will seem incremental. But it would be just the start.