As venture capital money pours into AI, many people are asking the same question. What is the analogy of AI to generations that have come before it?

I'm here to tell you that AI is not a Web 3 or Web 4 type moment.

The answer right now is quite simple: AI is automation.

* AI can help you sell better or more through your existing channels.

* AI can help you deliver better or more efficiently through your existing delivery mechanisms.

It does not match the revolutionary breakthrough in even these past tidal waves of innovation:

* Internet: A family of protocols that enabled communication on a vast scale.

* Web: A new specific protocol which led to a new sales channel (marketplaces and DTC).

* Social: A new way to communicate with your friends and business partners which became a new sales channel (social media marketing).

* Mobile: A new form factor for communications which not only led to a new sales channel (SMS) but also the application of Moore's law to computers in your pocket. Headsets will be in this same bucket, when they are ready (could take another decade or two before you think of this like mobile).

What is AI? Well, even if you don't know the answer, you know what it is not. It is not like any of the above waves. Venture capitalists pouring into the trend should worry about that.

In eCommerce, two things are breakthroughs:

* An entirely new channel of business. This is a new way to reach your customers, like the web or social media.

* An entirely new delivery mechanism which changes the cost equation by an order of magnitude: think of what Kindle is to the books category.

What's the best analogy I have for AI right now? Something like Cloud Computing.

Big and important, yes.

Incrementally great for everyone? Yes.

Revolutionary in the same manner as the other revolutions? Let's tap the brakes here.

Getting your AI to answer questions for you in a SaaS App... sure it's helpful, but the true generation winner in AI will come from a few areas:

* The compute and platforms that power the models.

* The compute and platforms that power the apps built on top of the models.

* New communication, sales or support channels built on AI negotiation that were not possible before. (Don't think AI negotiation is coming? You must not be an Amazon 1P vendor 😀)

This last point is what most people are focused on right now - mostly from a support or client management point of view, but it really needs to move to being a way to sell or deliver, and not a way to support.

In my ideal future, there is an army of robot buyers which represent a distinct channel than human buyers. Marketing to this new army of robot buyers will become a new thing too.

Sadly, I think in fulfillment and delivery we are talking about incremental improvements until we invent teleportation. 🤯